Aquila

How do the prospects for quantum technology weigh up?

Billions of dollars are being invested on quantum technology. This is because to its disruptive potential, whether it is much more powerful processing, improved sensing, or more dependable timing and navigation.

The UK National Quantum Technologies Programme alone is investing £1 billion over ten years, while the US has pledged $1 billion in additional financing for 12 new research centres. The private sector has kept up more than adequately. Nu Quantum and Riverlane, for example, are among companies in Cambridge bringing in venture capital for cyber security and quantum computing applications, respectively.

Quantum technology is expected to dramatically improve the dependability, speed, accuracy, and security of goods and services during the next 20 years. It is both an opportunity and a danger to cyber security since it will enable new medical diagnostics and pharmaceutical procedures, drastically enhance the precision of navigation above and below water, reveal possible earthquakes, and much more.

Thanks to technology advances, some companies may reap real gains from quantum computing within five years

This indicates a genuine economic potential throughout the technological stack and ecosystem, which will eventually make quantum a technology that businesses can employ. It covers everything from lasers and optical circuit components at the bottom of the stack to the algorithms that will run on quantum computers to revolutionise medication development.

However, like with any new invention, commercialization is fraught with difficulties for investors and enterprises. For example, building software for the top of the stack is difficult if you don't know what the bottom end looks like. Furthermore, building the hardware and components is hazardous since it requires time and money, and it may or may not function. In short, quantum is about where classical computers were in the 1970s in terms of ecosystem maturity: computers enabled discoveries and made regular jobs easier, but they required professionals to programme them to address unique issues.

So, how can technology developers find a position in this rapidly changing world and capitalise on the opportunity?

The simple answer is that anyone interested in thriving in the realm of quantum will need to grasp how the entire chain works, from qubits, components, and electronics through operating systems and algorithms. That will imply either being a major participant or being a part of a consortium that is familiar enough with the ecosystem to bridge the anticipated compatibility gaps between the various elements.

With quantum technologies, there is a clear possibility to develop a new ecosystem, from miniaturising optical or vacuum elements to quantum operating systems, applications, and algorithms, and maybe even Q-SaaS. As we have seen, it is still in its early stages, very fragmented, and not tremendously vertically integrated. The greatest hope for emerging businesses is to join forces in consortia that combine appropriate skills to solve the numerous challenges that lie ahead. They will also require access to organisations that have relevant issues for the technology to address — challenges that are not currently being worked on by the tech behemoths.

It will now feel like a long game. However, when the ecosystem comes together, it will signify quantum's transition from a specialised, niche technology to a broadly usable one that will reward all those VC investors many times over.