Clyde WTN

The World in 2050

In most recent World in 2050 studies, we forecasted economic growth estimates for 32 of the world's major economies, which account for around 84 percent of global GDP. We expect the global economy will grow at a rate slightly more than 3% per year from 2014 to 2050, more than doubling in size by 2037 and almost tripling by 2050.

A deceleration of global growth after 2020, as the pace of development in China and other important emerging countries slows to a more sustainable long-term rate, and as working-age population growth slows in many large countries.

Over the next 35 years, the global economic power shift1 away from the established advanced economies of North America, Western Europe, and Japan will continue. In terms of purchasing power parity (PPP2), China already surpassed the United States in 2014. Despite its anticipated economic slowdown, we expect China to overtake the US in terms of market exchange rate (MER) in 2028.

The current world population is 7.6 billion people. It is predicted to reach 9.2 billion by 2050. The developing world's population will be over 8 billion people by 2050. The developed world's population would be 1.2 billion. This 1.2 billion will stay largely steady primarily because population growth in the United States compensates declines in Europe and Japan.

It is clear that all population increase is occurring in emerging countries. In particular, Asia will contribute an astounding 41% and Africa will contribute 47% to this increase by 2050.

To satisfy rising food demand in 2050, global agriculture production must be raised by 60-70% from present levels, according to the broad view.

Alterations in eating habits Rising economic growth and income levels in emerging nations are driving individuals to consume more animal proteins and dairy products. This entails generating more food to feed animals in intensive-feeding systems—animals are inefficient feed converters.

Arable land will expand by roughly 200 million hectares by 2050, primarily from Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America. This growth may come at a high cost in terms of deforestation.

In contrast, we must recognise that animal production methods that use land that is unsuitable for crop production (for grazing) are highly efficient. In 2016, the world's meat output was 318 million tonnes. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), worldwide meat output would reach 455 million tonnes by 2050.In 2016, 36% of grains produced worldwide were given to animals. In 2050, significantly greater cereal output will be required to feed animals.

Second, a considerable percentage of the grain is now used to produce biofuels such as ethanol and biodiesel. Currently, 40 percent of the maize production in the United States is utilised to produce ethanol. Third, we anticipate enormous urban expansion in the next decades, notably in Africa and Asia.

Today, metropolitan regions house 55 percent of the world's population, a figure that is anticipated to rise to over 70 percent by 2050. Urbanization has a significant influence on food production and consumption patterns.

Urbanization has a significant influence on food production and consumption patterns. It frequently promotes infrastructural upgrades, such as cold chains, which will allow perishable commodities to be sold more extensively. All of these causes will place a significant strain on available arable land in 2050 in order to produce more human food.

Increasing the quantity of arable land available is a reasonable way to boost food production. There are now around 1,500 million hectares of arable land available worldwide. Over the last 40 years, roughly one-third of arable land has been endangered by erosion, sea water, and pollution, which have harmed soil health and biological production.

Because they lack the chemical, physical, biological, and infrastructural prerequisites for single crop species, these virgin areas are not easily available for agriculture.

In 1960, the global per capita arable land area was 0.42 hectares. In 2050, it will be 0.19 hectares. In emerging countries, the acreage shrinks even more, with per capita arable land shrinking from 0.33 to 0.14 hectares. In fact, many particular countries do not have the choice of cultivating more land.

Increasing productivity, on the other hand, now represents a more sustainable strategy to food security. Even with present technology, there is significant potential to enhance agricultural output. There are large yield gaps that might be exploited if the right socioeconomic incentives are in place.