Clyde WTN

Scarcity in a Changing World

Water shortage is dynamic and multifaceted, resulting from the combined impacts of climate change, basin-level water supplies, and the adaptive capacity of management systems. Aside from geophysical pressures and reactions, it is essential to analyse how multi-sector, multi-scale economic teleconnections alleviate or worsen water scarcity.

We offer a global-to-basin-scale exploratory investigation of potential water scarcity consequences by integrating a global human-Earth system model, a global hydrologic model, and a measure for economic surplus loss owing to resource scarcity.

We observe that, depending on the assumptions used, large hydrologic basins might suffer either strongly positive or strongly negative economic consequences as a result of global trade dynamics and market adjustments to localised scarcity.

Water shortage, worsened by climate change, has the potential to cost certain regions up to 6% of their GDP, drive migration, and cause war.

Water will become rare in areas where it is now abundant, such as Central Africa and East Asia, and shortage will intensify in areas where it is already scarce, such as the Middle East and Africa's Sahel region. Water-related consequences on agriculture, health, and incomes might reduce growth rates in these regions by up to 6% of GDP by 2050.

Water scarcity may increase the likelihood of violence. Drought-induced food price increases might exacerbate latent tensions and promote migration. Droughts and floods have caused waves of migration and increases in violence inside countries where economic growth is influenced by rainfall.

Climate change's negative effects on water might be mitigated with better policy decisions, with certain regions potentially increasing their development rates by up to 6% with improved water resource management.

Improved water management yields significant economic benefits. When governments respond to water scarcity by increasing efficiency and allocating even 25% of water to more valuable uses, such as more efficient farming techniques, losses decrease substantially and, in some cases, disappear.

To minimise wasteful water use in the world's arid regions, more far-reaching rules are required. To deal with the escalating climatic challenges, stronger policies and changes are required.