The projected market balance for primary aluminium from January to March 2021 was a deficit of 70 kt, following a surplus of 1070 kt for the entire year of 2020. From January to March 2021, demand for primary aluminium was 17.21 million tonnes, 1389 kt more than in the same period in 2020.

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Demand is evaluated on a perceptual basis, and nationwide lockouts may have skewed trade figures. Production increased by 5.9% from January to March 2021. Total reported stockpiles increased in January, dropped in February, and then increased again in March to conclude the period 694 kt above the December 2020 level.

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The majority of the increase in inventories was due to a 573 kt increase in LME warehouses in Malaysia. Total LME stockpiles stood at 1889.4 kt at the end of March 2021, up from 1340.5 kt at the end of 2020. Shanghai stockpiles increased in all three months, with the period finishing 154 kt over the December 2020 level. Large unreported stock fluctuations, in particular, are not allowed for in the consumption computation.

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Global output increased by 5.9 percent from January to March 2021 as compared to the first quarter of 2020. Despite somewhat decreased availability of imported feedstocks, Chinese output was estimated at 9758 kt, accounting for about 57% of total global output.

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Chinese apparent demand was 17% higher than from January to March 2020, and semi-manufacturing output increased by 31% compared to revised production statistics for the first three months of 2020. In 2020, China will become a net importer of unwrought aluminium. Chinese net exports of aluminium semi-manufactures were 1116 kt from January to March 2021, compared to 1051 kt from January to March 2020. Semi-manufacturing exports increased by 8% year on year from January to March 2020.

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From January through March, EU28 output was 7.6 percent lower than the previous year, while NAFTA output fell by 0.2 percent. Demand in the EU28 was 44 kt lower than the equivalent 2020 total. Global demand increased by 8.8 percent from January to March 2021 as compared to the same period the previous year.

Primary aluminium output was 5845.4 kt in March, while consumption was 5899.2 kt.

COPPER

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The copper market had a 2.2 kt surplus from January to March 2021, following a deficit of 954 kt in the entire year of 2020. At the end of March 2021, reported stockpiles were 141 kt greater than at the end of December 2020. Net deliveries into LME warehouses were 38.0 kt, while Comex inventories fell by 4.4 kt. During the first quarter of the year, Shanghai stockpiles increased by 113.3 kt. Demand is measured on an apparent basis, and the full impacts of national lockdowns are likely to have skewed trade figures. The consumption figure makes no consideration for unreported stock fluctuations, notably in the Chinese government stockpile.

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From January to March 2021, global mining output was 5.16 million tonnes, a 2.3% increase over the first three months of 2020. Global refined output was 5.91 million tonnes during January to March 2021, up 2% from the previous year, with substantial gains reported in China (up 199 kt) and India (up 33 kt).

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The lead market experiences a deficit from January to March 2021.

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The lead market had a deficit of 88 kt from January to March 2021, following a deficit of 119 kt for the entire year of 2020. Total stockpiles were 16 kt lower at the end of March than at the end of 2020. Unreported stock changes are not accounted for in the consumption computation. Demand is measured on an apparent basis, and the full impacts of national lockdowns are likely to have skewed trade figures.

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From January through March 2021, global refined production from both main and secondary sources was 3499 kt, 17% greater than in the same months in 2020. Chinese apparent demand was expected to be 1746.6 kt, 525 kt more than the corresponding time in 2020 and accounting for around 49% of the global total. In the United States, apparent demand grew by 31 kt during January to March 2021 as compared to the same months in 2020.

Refined lead output was 1229.2 kt in March 2021, while consumption was 1261.6 kt.

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The zinc market experiences a surplus from January to March 2021.

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The zinc market was in excess by 78 kt from January to March 2021, compared to a surplus of 620 kt for the entire previous year. Between January and March, reported stockpiles grew by 154 kt, with a net gain of 85.6 kt in Shanghai. LME stockpiles increased from January to March, closing 68.4 kt over the December 2020 level. LME stockpiles account for 34% of world totals, with the majority of metal stored in Asian and US warehouses. Demand is assessed on an apparent basis, thus the full consequences of national lockdowns are unlikely to be completely represented in trade data.

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Global refined output increased by 4.1 percent, while demand increased by 8.9 percent over the previous year. At 140.9 kt, Japanese apparent demand was 25% higher than the corresponding amount for January to March 2020.

The global demand was 279 kt greater than it was from January to March 2020. China's apparent demand was 1710 kt, accounting for 50% of the global total. Unreported stock changes are not accounted for in the consumption computation.

Slab zinc output was 1182.5 kt in March 2021, while consumption was 1154.7 kt.

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The nickel market experiences a deficit from January to March 2021.

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From January to March 2021, the nickel market was in deficit, with apparent demand surpassing output by 18.5 kt. The total surplus for 2020 was projected to be 95.4 kt. The reported stockpiles held in the LME at the end of March 2021 were 11.2 kt greater than the previous year's end. From January to March 2021, refined production totaled 585.9 kt, while consumption was 604.4 kt.

Mine output was 567.7 kt from January to March 2021, 44.3 kt more than the equivalent 2020 total. Smelter/refinery output in China dropped by 2.8 kt in 2020, but apparent demand was 311.1 kt, 43 kt more than the previous year. In Indonesia, output in the first quarter of 2021 was 198kt, a 40% increase over the previous quarter.

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The global apparent demand increased by 79 kt over the previous year. Unreported stock changes are not accounted for in the consumption computation. Demand is assessed on an apparent basis, thus the full consequences of national lockdowns are unlikely to be completely represented in trade data.

Nickel smelter/refinery output was 197.3 kt in March 2021, while demand was 211.2 kt.

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